Meteor runs it's own instance of mongo per app. As you note since your edit, when you ssh into your VM you use --port 3002 to connect.
Now you could add that port to your mongo shell launch except for one problem
ps -ef | grep mongo
on your VM will show you the running instance of mongo along with it's startup options. By default this will be bound to 127.0.0.1
which is the loopback adaptor and not accessible outside of the VM.
So what you need to do is either change the startup options in your project, or use another instance on mongo installed on the local machine.
export MONGO_URL=mongodb://localhost:27017/your_db